Market Update: Fed Sees Rates Higher for Longer; New & Pending Home Sales Coming Up This Week with Inflation Data

Blog posted On September 26, 2023

Last week was the Fed’s highly anticipated September meeting. While the Committee did not raise the benchmark interest rate, it did release an updated summary of economic projections for 2024. Among these projections was an updated dot plot marking where each Fed member thinks the benchmark rate will be at the end of next year. Compared to the Committee’s previous projections, September’s dot plot revelated that most members expect rates will be higher for longer. Their reasoning? Recent economic data showing that the economy is strong. All other things being equal, a strong economy tends to mean a weaker bond market and higher rates.

What matters most to the market right now isn’t the Fed raising rates. For the most part, markets are already prepared for the Fed’s rate decision come announcement day. So, instead of focusing on the decision itself, they are keying into anything that will give them more of an idea on what the Fed is thinking about the market and the economy moving forward. 

IN SHORT:

• The Fed holding rates steady last week wasn’t a surprise; the markets were already priced for it
• What was bigger news to the market was that the Fed doesn’t think rates are too high right now and it may need to push them HIGHER
• More importantly, the Fed won’t move rates LOWER until economic data “starts to deteriorate in a compelling way,” states Matthew Graham of Mortgage News Daily
• Last Thursday’s economic data brought the opposite, with initial jobless claims coming in much lower than expected

THINGS TO KEEP IN MIND:

• Do these updated projections mean rates will surge?

No. In fact, the rate movement last week wasn’t anything notable. Rates will likely continue fluctuating as they have been but it’s probable that we won’t see any lasting downward momentum for a little while.

• So should I wait to buy a house until they go down?

If you find the right house and you’re in a good financial position to buy, you shouldn’t let the opportunity slip while waiting for rates to fall. In fact, our Rate Rebound program allows you to buy your dream home now and get a lower rate later (when the market rate falls) with a no lender cost refinance*. Plus you’ll get a $1,000 credit toward other potential refinance costs!

Coming up this week, we have new home sales and pending home sales. We also have the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed’s preferred method of measuring inflation.

*CMG Home Loans will cover all customary lender fees which are processing fee, administrative fee, tax service fee, appraisal fee and credit report fee. In addition CMG Home Loans will also credit the borrower up to $1,000 towards additional third-party fees. This offer does not cover discount points. Credit cannot exceed total fees. Rate Rebound is only valid on future conventional conforming, government, and jumbo loans in our retail channel (future Construction Loans, All in One, HELOCs, Bond or HFA loans are excluded). There may be additional restrictions based on investor. Offer may not be redeemed for cash or credit and is nontransferable. Offer cannot be retroactively applied to any loans. Offer may not be used with any other discounts, promotions or interest-only/buy-down and second lien products. This offer is subject to changes or cancellation at any time at the sole discretion of CMG Home Loans. Additional restrictions/conditions may apply. This is not a commitment to lend and is contingent on qualification per full underwriting guidelines. Program will be available on loans disclosed on or after 11/1/22. Program is applicable for refinances 6 months after closing up to 5 years from original note date and with a net tangible benefit which includes a rate reduction of 0.5%, going from an ARM to fixed rate, reducing loan term, movement to a more stable product, or a lower principal and interest payment. By refinancing the existing loan, the total finance charges may be higher over the life of the loan. 

Sources: Mortgage News Daily, Mortgage News Daily,