• Kevin Long
  • News
  • Market Forecast: FOMC Meeting, JOLTS, and Retail Sales

Market Forecast: FOMC Meeting, JOLTS, and Retail Sales

  • December 11, 2017

Last week, the Senate passed their version of the Republican tax reform bill.  The House and Senate will now go to a conference committee to discuss the differences between the bills and edit one version to send to President Trump.  The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday, and Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a press conference on Wednesday afternoon.  On Monday, the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) comes out and on Thursday the retail sales report will be released.

The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday and is largely expected to raise rates.  The unemployment rate is at a record low and inflation is close to the targeted rate.  In December 2016, Fed Chair Janet Yellen projected three rate hikes in 2017, and so far, the Fed has raised rates twice. 

The JOLTS report is used to track monthly changes in job openings, offers, hiring, and voluntary quits.  Though the data lags one month, it is still a strong indicator of the labor market.  In September, JOLTS showed the addition of 6.094 million jobs.  In a strong labor market, employees are confident in changing jobs, because they believe if they quit they will find comparable employment.

Retail sales track the total amount of good and related services sold at retail stores.  In October, total retail sales improved 0.2% month-over-month, 0.1% month-over-month less autos, and 0.3% month-over-month less autos and gas.  Consumer spending is used to determine the health of the economy, since it accounts for about two-thirds of Gross Domestic Product.

If the FOMC votes to raise the benchmark interest rate, mortgage rates are likely to react.  However, this will be gradual.  Even with this year’s two rate hikes, mortgage rates remain historically low.


Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, MarketWatch, Mortgage News Daily

Kevin Long
Area Sales Manager
NMLS # 195255
Branch NMLS # 1108042

Kevin Long

PHONE: (615) 567-8901

CMG Image
© CMG Financial, All Rights Reserved. CMG Financial is a registered trade name of CMG Mortgage, Inc., NMLS ID #1820 in most, but not all states. CMG Mortgage, Inc. is an equal opportunity lender with corporate office located at 3160 Crow Canyon Road, Suite 400, San Ramon, CA 94583 888-264-4663. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act No. 4150025; AK #AK1820; AZ #0903132; Colorado regulated by the Division of Real Estate; Georgia Residential Mortgage Licensee #15438; Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee; Kansas Licensed Mortgage Company #MC.0001160; Massachusetts Mortgage Lender License #MC1820 and Mortgage Broker License #MC1820; Mississippi Licensed Mortgage Company Licensed by the Mississippi Department of Banking and Consumer Finance; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department; Licensed by the NJ Department of Banking and Insurance; Licensed Mortgage Banker – NYS Department of Financial Services; Ohio Mortgage Broker Act Mortgage Banker Exemption #MBMB.850204.000; Licensed by the Oregon Division of Financial Regulation #ML-3000; Rhode Island Licensed Lender #20142986LL; and Licensed by the Virginia State Corporation Commission #MC-5521. CMG Mortgage, Inc. is licensed in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Offer of credit is subject to credit approval. For information about our company, please visit us at www.cmgfi.com. To verify our complete list of state licenses, please visit www.cmgfi.com/corporate/licensing and NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).