Market Forecast: Construction Spending, Mortgage Applications, and ADP Employment Report

Blog posted On July 03, 2017

Mortgage rates trended slightly higher last week, but there are no significant changes to report.  This week, markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of Independence Day.  In housing news, US construction spending comes out on Monday and the weekly mortgage application survey comes out Wednesday.  It will also be a big week for job news with the ADP employment report scheduled for release on Thursday and several other employment reports on Friday.

Construction spending measures the total amount spent on construction projects including residential, non-residential, and public.  Residential constructions pending impacts the housing market the most, but spending on other construction projects triggers economic momentum like job creation and the purchase of materials.  In April, construction spending dropped 1.4% month-over-month, but improved 6.7% year-over-year.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) releases a weekly mortgage application survey to review any changes in the filing for new purchase and refinance applications.  For the week ending 6/23, both new purchase and refinance applications declined, for a composite drop of 6.2%.  New purchase applications were down 4.0% and refinance applications were down 9.0%. 

The ADP employment report is based on records from approximately 400,000 private businesses across the country employing about 23 million workers.  In May, the ADP employment report showed the addition of 253,000 jobs.  Overall, jobs reports have been positive lately and this week’s ADP employment report will show if these trends are continuing.

Since the Federal Reserve’s June rate hike, mortgage rates have not shifted drastically.  Home prices continue to appreciate as limited inventory drives prices up.  Even with the increase in prices, mortgage rates are historically low. 

Sources: Bloomberg, MarketWatch, Mortgage News Daily