• Kevin Long
  • News
  • Market Forecast: Mortgage Apps, NAHB Housing Market Index, Housing Starts and Building Permits

Market Forecast: Mortgage Apps, NAHB Housing Market Index, Housing Starts and Building Permits

  • May 13, 2019

CMG Image

Mortgage rates have not moved much this week and will likely stay low for the rest of the year, following the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause rate hikes.  This week, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) will release its housing market sentiment index.  Housing starts and building permits and the weekly mortgage application survey are also scheduled for release.  

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) weekly mortgage application survey tracks week to week changes in new purchase and refinance mortgage applications.  After declining for a couple of weeks, the survey rebounded for the week ending 5/3.  New purchase application submissions increased 4.0% and refinance application submissions increased 1.0% for a composite increase of 2.7%.

The NAHB housing market sentiment index surveys the nation’s home builders on current conditions, expectations for the next six months, and buyer foot traffic.  Any reading above 50 is considered positive.  In April, the index increased marginally to a level of 63.  Current sales conditions increased to a level of 69 and buyer foot traffic increased to a level of 47, but sales expectations for the next six months declined to a level of 71.  Data shows that builders have shifted gears in recent months in an attempt to cater to the need for starter homes versus the more profitable larger homes.  With more first-time home buyers starved for inventory, home builders have had to change course to cater to buyer demand.

Housing starts track ground broken on residential projects and building permits track permits issued.  In March, housing starts dropped 0.3% month-over-month, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.14 million.  Building permits also fell, down 1.7% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.27 million.  Although buyer demand remains strong, home builders are grappling with lack of labor and rising materials costs.

Lower mortgage rates will likely persist through the remainder of this year.  Potential home buyers or homeowners looking to refinance could benefit from these lower rates.  Even as buyers continue to compete over limited for-sale inventory, data shows that home price appreciation has slowed, giving many buyers a much-needed break. 


Sources: CNBC, CNBC, Econoday, MarketWatch, MarketWatch, Mortgage News Daily

Kevin Long
Area Sales Manager
NMLS # 195255
Branch NMLS # 1108042

Kevin Long

PHONE: (615) 567-8901

CMG Image
© CMG Financial, All Rights Reserved. CMG Financial is a registered trade name of CMG Mortgage, Inc., NMLS ID #1820 in most, but not all states. CMG Mortgage, Inc. is an equal opportunity lender with corporate office located at 3160 Crow Canyon Road, Suite 400, San Ramon, CA 94583 888-264-4663. Licensed by the Department of Business Oversight under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act No. 4150025; AK #AK1820; AZ #0903132; Colorado regulated by the Division of Real Estate; Georgia Residential Mortgage Licensee #15438; Illinois Residential Mortgage Licensee; Kansas Licensed Mortgage Company #MC.0001160; Massachusetts Mortgage Lender License #MC1820 and Mortgage Broker License #MC1820; Mississippi Licensed Mortgage Company Licensed by the Mississippi Department of Banking and Consumer Finance; Licensed by the New Hampshire Banking Department; Licensed by the NJ Department of Banking and Insurance; Licensed Mortgage Banker – NYS Department of Financial Services; Ohio Mortgage Broker Act Mortgage Banker Exemption #MBMB.850204.000; Licensed by the Oregon Division of Financial Regulation #ML-3000; Rhode Island Licensed Lender #20142986LL; and Licensed by the Virginia State Corporation Commission #MC-5521. CMG Mortgage, Inc. is licensed in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Offer of credit is subject to credit approval. For information about our company, please visit us at www.cmgfi.com. To verify our complete list of state licenses, please visit www.cmgfi.com/corporate/licensing and NMLS Consumer Access (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org).