Housing Predictions from the MBA National Secondary Market Conference and Expo

Blog posted On May 18, 2017

Earlier this month, housing professionals from around the country gathered in New York City for the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) National Secondary Market Conference and Expo.  One exclusive panel included a discussion with Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sean Becketti, Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan, and MBA Chief Economist Mike Frantantoni. 

When asked about the likelihood of recession, Becketti explained that while the odds have increased, recessions are events-driven.  He predicted a 15-20% chance of recession over the next year asserting, “the economy doesn’t just run out of gas and slow down.”  Duncan forecast a 30% chance, citing corporate debt, consumer credit card usage, and auto sales as potential influencers.

Concerning interest rate hikes, Frantantoni predicts two more in 2017, one in June, one in September.  Becketti upped the prediction to two or three more rate hikes by the end of the year.  Duncan agreed with Frantantoni for two more rate hikes before the end of the year.  He stated, “we’re not convinced that inflationary pressures are enough to make the Fed more aggressive.” 

With home prices appreciating and time on the market speeding up, the housing market continues to boom into spring. 

Sources: HousingWire